This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Sparticuse’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Sparticuse | training | published before 2020 | 421 | 640 |
Sparticuse | validation | published 2020 | 48 | 38 |
Sparticuse | test | published after 2020 | 23 | 12 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Sparticuse | Space Cowboys | 4.5% | 0.1% | 39.78 |
Sparticuse | Renegade Game Studios | 3.1% | 0.4% | 8.68 |
Sparticuse | Fantasy Flight Games | 7.1% | 1.1% | 6.71 |
Sparticuse | ZMan Games | 8.1% | 1.3% | 6.09 |
Sparticuse | Pegasus Spiele | 11.2% | 2.0% | 5.47 |
Sparticuse | Open Drafting | 28.0% | 8.0% | 3.51 |
Sparticuse | Wizards Of The Coast | 1.4% | 0.5% | 2.61 |
Sparticuse | Crowdfunding Kickstarter | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.00 |
Sparticuse | Ravensburger | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.56 |
Sparticuse | Card Game | 43.5% | 29.2% | 1.49 |
Sparticuse | Modular Board | 9.7% | 7.6% | 1.28 |
Sparticuse | Dice Rolling | 18.1% | 28.6% | 0.63 |
Sparticuse | Campaign Battle Card Driven | 1.2% | 2.6% | 0.45 |
Sparticuse | Wargame | 3.3% | 19.0% | 0.18 |
Sparticuse | Roll Spin And Move | 0.7% | 6.8% | 0.10 |
Sparticuse | Childrens Game | 0.5% | 8.1% | 0.06 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2014 | 148228 | Splendor | 0.987 | yes |
2 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.881 | yes |
3 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.859 | no |
4 | 2007 | 28143 | Race for the Galaxy | 0.858 | yes |
5 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.855 | yes |
6 | 2018 | 255692 | New Frontiers | 0.843 | yes |
7 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.823 | no |
8 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.804 | no |
9 | 2009 | 54043 | Jaipur | 0.801 | yes |
10 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.791 | no |
11 | 2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.778 | no |
12 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.769 | no |
13 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.758 | yes |
14 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.758 | no |
15 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.742 | no |
16 | 2015 | 163968 | Elysium | 0.741 | no |
17 | 2012 | 129622 | Love Letter | 0.738 | no |
18 | 2009 | 45134 | Arcana | 0.731 | yes |
19 | 2016 | 176083 | Hit Z Road | 0.726 | no |
20 | 2019 | 265736 | Tiny Towns | 0.712 | no |
21 | 2010 | 82702 | Funfair | 0.707 | no |
22 | 2000 | 478 | Citadels | 0.702 | no |
23 | 2017 | 221805 | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | 0.701 | no |
24 | 2016 | 201808 | Clank!: A Deck-Building Adventure | 0.679 | no |
25 | 2019 | 284818 | Caylus 1303 | 0.671 | no |
26 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.663 | no |
27 | 1998 | 503 | Through the Desert | 0.662 | yes |
28 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.662 | no |
29 | 2016 | 151347 | Millennium Blades | 0.661 | yes |
30 | 2014 | 132531 | Roll for the Galaxy | 0.653 | yes |
31 | 2018 | 313010 | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | 0.644 | no |
32 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.639 | no |
33 | 2012 | 120677 | Terra Mystica | 0.638 | no |
34 | 2019 | 286154 | TIME Stories Revolution: Damien 1958 NT | 0.635 | no |
35 | 2010 | 70512 | Luna | 0.634 | no |
36 | 2018 | 230253 | Star Realms: Frontiers | 0.622 | no |
37 | 2011 | 104006 | Village | 0.617 | no |
38 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.613 | no |
39 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.599 | no |
40 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.582 | no |
41 | 2017 | 234487 | Altiplano | 0.581 | no |
42 | 2016 | 224483 | Exceed Fighting System | 0.570 | no |
43 | 2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.568 | yes |
44 | 2010 | 77130 | Sid Meier's Civilization: The Board Game | 0.565 | no |
45 | 2019 | 283863 | The Magnificent | 0.564 | no |
46 | 2014 | 157958 | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | 0.559 | no |
47 | 2018 | 266121 | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures | 0.556 | yes |
48 | 2016 | 191189 | Aeon's End | 0.554 | yes |
49 | 2018 | 255507 | Orbis | 0.552 | yes |
50 | 2015 | 172386 | Mombasa | 0.552 | no |
51 | 2004 | 9216 | Goa | 0.550 | no |
52 | 2016 | 205398 | Citadels | 0.535 | no |
53 | 2017 | 223931 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | 0.533 | no |
54 | 2011 | 70919 | Takenoko | 0.530 | no |
55 | 2019 | 294612 | Unlock!: Epic Adventures | 0.524 | yes |
56 | 2016 | 198928 | Pandemic: Iberia | 0.521 | yes |
57 | 2018 | 245928 | Pax Emancipation | 0.520 | no |
58 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.518 | yes |
59 | 2019 | 258411 | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Expedition: Challenger | 0.513 | no |
60 | 2019 | 260710 | Amul | 0.511 | no |
61 | 2017 | 224316 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – The Elite | 0.510 | no |
62 | 2013 | 142961 | Thunderstone Advance: Numenera | 0.509 | no |
63 | 2016 | 204305 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | 0.509 | no |
64 | 2019 | 235555 | Bios: Origins (Second Edition) | 0.502 | no |
65 | 2018 | 233080 | Book of Dragons | 0.494 | no |
66 | 2018 | 236709 | The Tea Dragon Society Card Game | 0.493 | no |
67 | 2010 | 66505 | The Speicherstadt | 0.491 | no |
68 | 2013 | 137408 | Amerigo | 0.489 | no |
69 | 2010 | 20437 | Lords of Vegas | 0.480 | no |
70 | 2008 | 37380 | Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age | 0.479 | no |
71 | 2015 | 171630 | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | 0.474 | no |
72 | 2018 | 238546 | The Rise of Queensdale | 0.473 | no |
73 | 2017 | 226501 | Dragonfire | 0.469 | no |
74 | 2012 | 111341 | The Great Zimbabwe | 0.466 | no |
75 | 2009 | 43868 | The Adventurers: The Temple of Chac | 0.466 | no |
76 | 2014 | 156336 | Onirim (Second Edition) | 0.466 | no |
77 | 2018 | 256916 | Concordia Venus | 0.465 | no |
78 | 2004 | 13285 | Dungeonville | 0.463 | no |
79 | 2018 | 257707 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – In Pursuit of Cabrakan | 0.463 | no |
80 | 2016 | 192777 | Junta: Las Cartas | 0.459 | no |
81 | 2018 | 245353 | Unlock!: Secret Adventures – Tombstone Express | 0.456 | yes |
82 | 2017 | 229598 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | 0.448 | no |
83 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.446 | no |
84 | 2017 | 229632 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Fifth Avenue | 0.445 | no |
85 | 2011 | 85897 | Thunderstone: Dragonspire | 0.443 | no |
86 | 2012 | 72848 | Kill the Overlord | 0.443 | no |
87 | 2009 | 39683 | At the Gates of Loyang | 0.443 | no |
88 | 2012 | 40765 | Clash of Cultures | 0.439 | no |
89 | 2012 | 125548 | Pixel Tactics | 0.430 | no |
90 | 2019 | 271530 | Ankh'or | 0.427 | no |
91 | 2002 | 4098 | Age of Steam | 0.426 | yes |
92 | 2018 | 223514 | Coin & Crown | 0.425 | no |
93 | 2014 | 150926 | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age | 0.424 | no |
94 | 2017 | 216092 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Squeek & Sausage | 0.417 | no |
95 | 2013 | 140951 | Thunderstone: Starter Set | 0.417 | no |
96 | 2013 | 140620 | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | 0.417 | no |
97 | 2017 | 230303 | Unlock!: Mystery Adventures – The House on the Hill | 0.415 | yes |
98 | 2014 | 157403 | Black Fleet | 0.411 | no |
99 | 2018 | 247763 | Underwater Cities | 0.408 | no |
100 | 2006 | 21882 | Blue Moon City | 0.406 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.89 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.77 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Sparticuse is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.859 | no |
2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.823 | no |
2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.804 | no |
2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.791 | no |
2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.778 | no |
What games does the model think Sparticuse is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
-2200 | 188 | Go | 0.001 | yes |
1999 | 1489 | Deadwood Studios USA | 0.002 | yes |
2017 | 234277 | Nusfjord | 0.003 | yes |
2018 | 244513 | ICECOOL2 | 0.004 | yes |
2015 | 177080 | Lord of the Dead | 0.004 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Love Letter | Glass Road | Splendor | 504 | Scythe | Gaia Project | New Frontiers | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
2 | Terra Mystica | Thunderstone Advance: Numenera | Roll for the Galaxy | Elysium | Hit Z Road | Gloomhaven | Newton | Era: Medieval Age |
3 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Amerigo | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Mombasa | Clank!: A Deck-Building Adventure | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Tapestry |
4 | The Great Zimbabwe | Thunderstone: Starter Set | Onirim (Second Edition) | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | Terraforming Mars | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Star Realms: Frontiers | Tiny Towns |
5 | Kill the Overlord | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age | Watson & Holmes | Millennium Blades | Altiplano | Everdell | Caylus 1303 |
6 | Clash of Cultures | City of Remnants | Black Fleet | Star Realms: Colony Wars | Star Wars: Rebellion | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures | Aftermath |
7 | Pixel Tactics | BattleCON: Devastation of Indines | Imperial Settlers | T.I.M.E Stories | Exceed Fighting System | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – The Elite | Orbis | TIME Stories Revolution: Damien 1958 NT |
8 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | City of Iron | Valley of the Kings | BattleCON: Fate of Indines | Aeon's End | Dragonfire | Pax Emancipation | The Magnificent |
9 | Thunderstone Advance: Towers of Ruin | Patchistory | Thunderstone Advance: Worlds Collide | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | Citadels | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | Book of Dragons | Unlock!: Epic Adventures |
10 | Space Cadets | La Boca | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | Dragon Farkle | Pandemic: Iberia | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Fifth Avenue | The Tea Dragon Society Card Game | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Expedition: Challenger |
11 | Trains | Carcassonne: South Seas | Burgenland | Het Koninkrijk Dominion | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Squeek & Sausage | The Rise of Queensdale | Amul |
12 | Il Vecchio | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | Murano | My Village | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | Unlock!: Mystery Adventures – The House on the Hill | Concordia Venus | Bios: Origins (Second Edition) |
13 | Android: Netrunner | Rococo | Port Royal | Runebound (Third Edition) | Junta: Las Cartas | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – The Island of Doctor Goorse | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – In Pursuit of Cabrakan | Ankh'or |
14 | Ascension: Immortal Heroes | Five Cucumbers | Abyss | Dungeons & Dragons: Temple of Elemental Evil Board Game | Covert | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Temple of Ra | Unlock!: Secret Adventures – Tombstone Express | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Night of the Boogeymen |
15 | Copycat | Sail to India | Star Realms | Sylvion | Hero Realms | Valletta | Coin & Crown | Sierra West |
16 | Keyflower | Pixel Tactics 2 | Neptun | Parfum | The Castles of Burgundy: The Card Game | Noria | Underwater Cities | Aeon's End: Legacy |
17 | Infinity Dungeon: Peril without End | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | Nations: The Dice Game | Mission: Red Planet (Second Edition) | The Manhattan Project: Energy Empire | Jump Drive | Fine Sand | Last Bastion |
18 | Tokaido | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Power Grid Deluxe: Europe/North America | Dale of Merchants | Explorers of the North Sea | The Quest for El Dorado | Unlock!: Secret Adventures – The Adventurers of Oz | Res Arcana |
19 | Yedo | Impulse | Patchwork | Valley of the Kings: Afterlife | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | Unlock!: Mystery Adventures – The Tonipal's Treasure | Architects of the West Kingdom | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures |
20 | Snowdonia | Crossing | Fields of Arle | Tiny Epic Galaxies | Exceed: Red Horizon – Reese, Heidi, Nehtali, and Vincent | Unlock!: Mystery Adventures – The Nautilus' Traps | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | Star Wars: Outer Rim |
21 | Suburbia | Blitzed! | The Golden Ages | The Pursuit of Happiness | Black Orchestra | Ticket to Ride: Germany | Hardback | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
22 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Guildhall: Job Faire | Akrotiri | Baseball Highlights: 2045 | BattleCON: Trials of Indines | Battle for Rokugan | Blackout: Hong Kong | It's a Wonderful World |
23 | Dominare | Time 'n' Space | Shipwrights of the North Sea | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | Smash Up: Cease and Desist | Fast Forward: FLEE | Gunkimono | Maracaibo |
24 | Saint Malo | Russian Railroads | San Juan (Second Edition) | Copper Country | Via Nebula | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – The Formula | Neon Gods | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
25 | Winter Tales | Train Heist | Dragon's Hoard | SteamRollers | A Game of Thrones: Hand of the King | The Castles of Burgundy: The Dice Game | Coimbra | The Quest for El Dorado: The Golden Temples |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Sparticuse | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.814 |
Sparticuse | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.775 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 293296 | Splendor: Marvel | 0.722 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.704 | no |
2020 | 318983 | Faiyum | 0.673 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.602 | yes |
2020 | 281655 | High Frontier 4 All | 0.559 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.518 | no |
2020 | 283155 | Calico | 0.493 | no |
2020 | 271524 | TIME Stories Revolution: A Midsummer Night | 0.491 | no |
2020 | 296151 | Viscounts of the West Kingdom | 0.478 | yes |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.474 | no |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.426 | no |
2020 | 294448 | Tea for 2 | 0.424 | no |
2020 | 287742 | TIME Stories Revolution: The Hadal Project | 0.401 | no |
2020 | 327913 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Arsène Lupin und der große weiße Diamant | 0.398 | no |
2020 | 316377 | 7 Wonders (Second Edition) | 0.359 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.330 | no |
2020 | 310442 | Feierabend | 0.323 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.322 | yes |
2020 | 174400 | BattleCON: Wanderers of Indines | 0.284 | no |
2020 | 299317 | Aeon's End: Outcasts | 0.271 | yes |
2020 | 279537 | The Search for Planet X | 0.260 | yes |
2020 | 331952 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Die Noside-Show | 0.255 | no |
2020 | 331953 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Verloren im Zeitstrudel! | 0.255 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.253 | yes |
2020 | 293556 | Gloomy Graves | 0.236 | no |
2020 | 316750 | The Princess Bride Adventure Book Game | 0.229 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.209 | yes |
2020 | 284665 | Board Royale: The Island | 0.203 | no |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.195 | no |
2020 | 284742 | Honey Buzz | 0.194 | no |
2020 | 318084 | Furnace | 0.193 | yes |
2020 | 299252 | Here to Slay | 0.188 | no |
2020 | 295577 | Dungeon Mayhem: Monster Madness | 0.185 | no |
2020 | 287325 | Exceed: Shovel Knight – Hope Box | 0.175 | yes |
2020 | 307844 | Atheneum: Mystic Library | 0.171 | no |
2020 | 293678 | Stellar | 0.169 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.162 | yes |
2020 | 300327 | The Castles of Tuscany | 0.159 | no |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.156 | no |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.156 | no |
2020 | 300531 | Paleo | 0.154 | yes |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.145 | yes |
2020 | 301607 | KeyForge: Mass Mutation | 0.144 | no |
2020 | 309113 | Ticket to Ride: Amsterdam | 0.143 | no |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.139 | no |
2020 | 293014 | Nidavellir | 0.137 | yes |
2020 | 296237 | Warp's Edge | 0.136 | no |
2020 | 302310 | Nanaki | 0.135 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.131 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.130 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.793 | no |
2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.657 | no |
2021 | 350636 | Unlock!: Game Adventures | 0.650 | no |
2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.574 | no |
2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.506 | no |
2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.446 | no |
2021 | 283387 | Rocketmen | 0.407 | no |
2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.396 | no |
2021 | 341048 | Free Ride | 0.391 | no |
2022 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.373 | no |
2021 | 271529 | Botanik | 0.333 | no |
2021 | 287608 | Epic Card Game: Duels | 0.327 | no |
2021 | 298069 | Cubitos | 0.312 | no |
2022 | 288080 | Dice Realms | 0.308 | no |
2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.307 | no |
2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.305 | no |
2021 | 330084 | Unlock!: Legendary Adventures | 0.293 | no |
2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.292 | no |
2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.282 | no |
2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.275 | no |
2021 | 331212 | Aeon's End: Legacy of Gravehold | 0.274 | yes |
2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.271 | no |
2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.271 | no |
2021 | 330608 | Cryo | 0.269 | no |
2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.257 | no |
2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.244 | no |
2021 | 348461 | Castle Break | 0.241 | no |
2021 | 342073 | Berried Treasure | 0.241 | no |
2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.239 | no |
2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.238 | no |
2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.233 | yes |
2021 | 324242 | Sheepy Time | 0.229 | no |
2021 | 309319 | Apogee | 0.223 | no |
2022 | 326945 | Castles of Mad King Ludwig: Collector's Edition | 0.222 | no |
2021 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.221 | no |
2021 | 211364 | Seize the Bean | 0.221 | no |
2022 | 330950 | Age of Galaxy | 0.218 | no |
2021 | 292899 | Tribune | 0.217 | no |
2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.216 | no |
2021 | 328479 | Living Forest | 0.215 | no |
2021 | 304783 | Hadrian's Wall | 0.209 | yes |
2021 | 308119 | Pax Renaissance: 2nd Edition | 0.207 | no |
2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.203 | no |
2021 | 344277 | Corrosion | 0.201 | no |
2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.200 | no |
2021 | 328871 | Terraforming Mars: Ares Expedition | 0.197 | no |
2021 | 316287 | Quest | 0.193 | no |
2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.193 | no |
2021 | 313269 | Rescuing Robin Hood | 0.192 | no |
2022 | 305462 | The Age of Atlantis | 0.192 | no |
2021 | 343526 | G.I. JOE Deck-Building Game | 0.190 | no |
2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.183 | no |
2021 | 315234 | Embarcadero | 0.180 | no |
2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.177 | no |
2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.177 | no |
2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.176 | no |
2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.175 | no |
2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.169 | no |
2022 | 346199 | A Game of Thrones: B'Twixt | 0.168 | no |
2021 | 318184 | Imperium: Classics | 0.163 | yes |
2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.163 | no |
2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.163 | no |
2021 | 322124 | Power Rangers: Deck-Building Game | 0.163 | no |
2021 | 295947 | Cascadia | 0.161 | no |
2021 | 344408 | Full Throttle! | 0.158 | no |
2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.158 | no |
2022 | 314580 | Hamburg | 0.155 | no |
2021 | 328286 | Mission ISS | 0.155 | no |
2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.153 | no |
2021 | 337787 | Summer Camp | 0.153 | no |
2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.152 | no |
2021 | 308566 | Nova Lux | 0.146 | no |
2023 | 337627 | Voidfall | 0.146 | no |
2021 | 314393 | Wutaki | 0.145 | no |
2021 | 319792 | Fly-A-Way | 0.145 | no |
2021 | 342547 | Mystery Games: Der verfluchte Geburtstag | 0.144 | no |
2021 | 328478 | Dungeons & Dragons: Dungeon Scrawlers – Heroes of Undermountain | 0.143 | no |
2021 | 310641 | Ostium | 0.143 | no |
2021 | 316080 | KeyForge: Dark Tidings | 0.141 | no |
2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.141 | no |
2022 | 230967 | Verrix | 0.139 | no |
2022 | 280726 | Legacies | 0.139 | no |
2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.138 | yes |
2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.137 | no |
2021 | 342545 | Stichtag | 0.135 | no |
2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.134 | no |
2021 | 344768 | Mobile Markets: A Smartphone Inc. Game | 0.133 | no |
2022 | 342927 | Fire & Stone | 0.132 | no |
2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.132 | no |
2021 | 308989 | Bristol 1350 | 0.132 | no |
2022 | 319910 | Pagan: Fate of Roanoke | 0.131 | no |
2021 | 303954 | Pax Viking | 0.130 | no |
2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.124 | no |
2022 | 332393 | Bridge City Poker | 0.124 | no |
2021 | 304324 | Dive | 0.122 | no |
2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.119 | yes |
2021 | 289550 | Lions of Lydia | 0.119 | no |
2021 | 333055 | Subastral | 0.119 | no |
2022 | 300217 | Merchants of the Dark Road | 0.117 | no |
2021 | 338760 | Imperial Steam | 0.116 | no |